Caixin Futures: Most non-ferrous and new energy commodities fluctuate; expectations of ample lithium carbonate supply strengthen

⑴ In the sector of non-ferrous and new energy products, SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE zinc, and precious metals are all showing volatility, with lithium carbonate mainly exhibiting a volatile trend. ⑵ On the macro front, on the 22nd local time, Iran and the United States continued dialogues in Pakistan under mediation, but significant uncertainty remains regarding US-Iran conflicts. On the supply side, concentrated maintenance at smelting enterprises has reduced domestic arrivals, with limited imported supply, making overall market supply relatively tight. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile. ⑶ For aluminum, the overseas supply gap and low inventory continue to provide underlying support, while an ongoing higher-than-expected domestic stock build-up will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑷ For zinc, disruptions at the mine end have led to persistently low overseas processing fees, very low willingness to operate among smelters, and strong expectations of supply contraction, providing bottom support. The rising expectation of Fed rate hikes is suppressing a rebound in non-ferrous metals, so despite fundamental support, zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. ⑸ In the precious metals sector, the teeter-totter effect between crude oil and precious metals persists, and significant uncertainty remains regarding US-Iran conflicts, so precious metals are likely to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are signs of easing in US-Iran tensions, the outlook for Fed rate hikes is becoming increasingly solid, so prices of gold and silver are still unlikely to show much improvement. ⑹ Regarding lithium carbonate, overseas supply disruptions are nearing their end, and a small-scale rebound is underway. Customs data show that in April 2026, China imported 32,650.36 tons of lithium carbonate, up 8.93% month-on-month and up 15.23% year-on-year, with Chile accounting for 65% and Argentina for 29% of the imports. Both countries saw obvious month-on-month increases, further strengthening relaxed supply expectations. In the spot market, battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped 2,000 yuan to 178,250 yuan per ton.