Weight loss effect comparable to surgery! Eli Lilly RETA becomes the strongest "weight loss miracle drug" in history—"Will obesity become a rare disease in a few years?"

The latest Phase III clinical data for Eli Lilly's next-generation weight loss drug, retatrutide (abbreviated as "RETA"), has shocked the medical community and capital markets — participants achieved an average maximum weight loss of 28% of body weight, approximately 70 pounds, with nearly half of patients losing more than 30%, and some severely obese patients losing an average of 85 pounds over 104 weeks. The level of weight loss has now fully entered the results range previously exclusive to weight loss surgery.

This result has been described by several independent medical experts not involved in the trial as "the greatest weight loss observed in any drug trial in history." Eli Lilly stated that it will submit the application for RETA to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as early as this year. After the news was announced, Eli Lilly's share price continued to strengthen, with its market value nearing the $1 trillion threshold.

The emergence of RETA not only marks a new evolutionary stage for GLP-1 drugs, but is also seen by the market as a systemic shock to the "overconsumption economy." Share prices in multiple industries — from restaurants and fast food to alcohol and processed foods — are already under pressure. Some in the medical field have even predicted:

"Within a few years, obesity will once again become a rare disease."

RETA Clinical Data: Weight Loss Comparable to Surgery

The core breakthrough of RETA lies in its "triple agonist" mechanism. Unlike previous GLP-1 drugs, RETA simultaneously targets three metabolic pathways: GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon, while Eli Lilly’s existing blockbuster drug Zepbound is only a dual agonist, targeting just GLP-1 and GIP.

According to NBC News, the Phase III clinical trial included about 2,300 obese or overweight patients over a period of 80 weeks. Results showed that patients receiving the highest dose lost on average 28% of body weight, or about 70 pounds, with nearly half losing over 30%. A group of severely obese patients who took the drug for 104 weeks lost an average of 85 pounds.

(Source: Eli Lilly)

For comparison, Zepbound’s highest dose group lost about 21% on average in a 72-week trial, and Wegovy’s highest dose group lost about 15% on average in a 68-week trial. It should be noted that these data come from separate, independent clinical studies.

Weight loss surgery typically helps patients lose 25% to 35% of their body weight within one to two years. RETA’s data now overlaps substantially with this range, prompting many experts to call it a "game changer."

Dr. Susan Spratt, Senior Medical Director of Population Health Management at Duke University Health System and an endocrinologist, stated:

"This is the greatest weight loss I’ve ever seen in any drug trial — it’s significant."

Filling the Effectiveness Gap of Existing GLP-1s

The clinical value of RETA lies not only in setting a new weight loss record, but also in its potential to cover populations who do not respond to existing GLP-1 drugs.

Dr. Shauna Levy, Medical Director of Tulane University Weight Loss Center, pointed out that for severely obese patients with a BMI of 35 and above, current GLP-1 drugs often fail to deliver sufficient weight loss.

"Weight loss surgery can provide sufficient results, but RETA also appears to be an effective tool to help high BMI patients reach a healthy weight."

Dr. Spratt further added that about 10% of patients are unresponsive to existing GLP-1 drugs, and RETA could be important for this group. “For GLP-1 non-responders, this drug could be very useful.”

In terms of side effects, RETA is similar to other GLP-1 drugs, with common adverse effects including nausea, constipation, and diarrhea.

Eli Lilly also disclosed that compared to the placebo group, patients on RETA reported higher rates of abnormal skin sensations and urinary tract infections. The dropout rate was higher than Zepbound, but similar to Wegovy.

Currently, Eli Lilly has not yet submitted an FDA application for RETA, but the company stated it plans to begin the submission process as early as this year.

More Than Weight Loss: GLP-1 as a "Master Metabolic Switch"

The advent of RETA is prompting the market to reassess the strategic value of the entire GLP-1 class — its impact now goes far beyond weight management.

Current research shows that GLP-1 drugs also have promising signals for reducing heart disease risk, improving sleep apnea, protecting kidney function, and reducing addictive behaviors. The latest potential breakthroughs are coming from the oncology field:

The Cleveland Clinic will release data at the world’s largest cancer research conference, showing that after tracking more than 10,000 cancer patients, GLP-1 users saw tumor progression rates decrease by 38% to 50% in multiple tumor types, including breast, lung, colon, and liver cancer. Researchers emphasized that these findings are still at an early stage.

On the drug development front, the pharmaceutical industry has already progressed from dual to triple, quadruple, and even quintuple agonists, targeting multiple metabolic pathways. Some believe that the race to develop anti-obesity drugs has now become an "arms race" centered on human metabolism.

Dr. Danish in the medical field gave a striking forecast: "Within a few years, obesity will be reclassified as a rare disease."

Eli Lilly Nears $1 Trillion, Consumer Sectors Under Pressure

Meanwhile, the surge of RETA-enabled data is driving significant structural shifts in the capital market.

Eli Lilly’s share price continues to benefit from RETA expectations, pushing toward historic highs and the $1 trillion valuation threshold. Its foundation now manages close to $100 billion in assets. However, the rise of GLP-1 drugs is having a direct impact on multiple consumer industries.

According to research from Deutsche Bank, after starting medication, the share of patients eating at restaurants fell sharply from 55% to 31%, those going to fast food chains and cafes dropped from two-thirds to 37%, and both food delivery and alcohol consumption also fell from over half to about one-third. More importantly, even after stopping medication, the majority of GLP-1 users maintained their new eating habits — “once ingrained, these new habits tend to persist.”

According to JPMorgan data, the overall net performance of the U.S. restaurant sector continues to decline, with the long-short ratio dropping to its lowest percentile in years.

The alcohol industry is likewise deeply troubled. Tequila brand Cuervo has seen its stock price fall by about 70% over the past five years, with over 70% of enterprise value lost since 2021; Diageo has also shown a clear downward trend, losing about $50 billion in market value.

Additionally, the processed food sector is also listed as one of the potential casualties of the GLP-1 wave.