BNP Paribas Analysis: Weak Eurozone Economy Makes ECB Rate Hike Expectations Seem Excessive
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- Analysts stated in a report that recent data shows the eurozone economy is fragile, and market expectations for ECB rate hikes appear overdone.
- The analysts said: “Compared to the potential deterioration in the eurozone growth outlook, current ECB pricing remains too aggressive.”
- The preliminary value of the eurozone’s May Purchasing Managers’ Index released last week was unexpectedly weak, as high oil prices dented confidence among consumers and businesses.
- Data shows that the eurozone money market currently prices in an 80% probability of an ECB 25-basis-point rate hike in June, and has fully priced in two hikes by the end of the year.
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