JPMorgan: S&P 500 Index Likely to Rise to 9,000 by Mid-Next Year, But Historical Patterns Warn of Unsustainable High Returns

BlockBeats News, May 25th – In its latest report, JPMorgan Chase stated that although this is not its base case scenario, driven by the continuation of the tech capital expenditure cycle, the expansion of AI-related earnings contributions, and the improvement in market risk appetite, the S&P 500 Index is expected to rise to 9,000 by mid-2027.

The institution believes that the market may currently underestimate the probability of this upside scenario. If the index rises to 9,000, it would mean about a 20% further upside from the current level. The report stated that the Technology, Media, and Telecom sectors are still the core variables driving further upside in the index, especially whether AI investment can continue to translate into corporate revenue and profit growth, which will determine whether U.S. stocks can enter the next phase of uptrend.

However, there is a clear divergence of views within the market. The mainstream view on Wall Street is that after the rapid rebound from the March low, U.S. stocks are likely to enter a period of consolidation in the short term. The continuous rise in global bond yields will inhibit consumer spending and business investment, thereby dragging down economic growth. The energy shock triggered by the Iran situation will push up inflation and fuel prices, becoming a key risk factor of concern for central banks around the world.

In addition, from the perspective of historical trend patterns, it is difficult for a market rally with high returns for multiple years to sustain in the long term. Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at SimCorp, cited long-term market data, stating that since 1926, U.S. stocks have only achieved annualized returns of over 15% for four consecutive years three times, making such rallies very rare.

Brown also pointed out that after three consecutive years of annual returns exceeding 20%, the average return rate in the fourth year is only 3.9%, far below the historical average of 11.8%. She admitted that historical data cannot definitively determine this year's trend, and the AI sector still has the potential to drive the overall market higher. However, if this year indeed achieves low double-digit growth, the likelihood of the market continuing to rise next year will further diminish.