Société Générale: Market expectations for a rate hike in June are reasonable, and the probability of a second rate hike in July may increase.

(1) Analysts at Société Générale stated that the market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the June meeting, and this expectation appears to be well-founded. (2) The analysts pointed out that if the June rate hike does not encounter significant resistance, and if the next European Central Bank staff projections or the June 11 press conference do not take on a dovish tone, the market may soon start to anticipate a higher likelihood of a second rate hike in July. Currently, the market reflects a 28% probability for a 25 basis point rate hike in July. (3) Société Générale analysts still maintain their expectation for a second rate hike in September.