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BlockBeats News, May 26th - Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that despite BTC recently reclaiming $77,000, the net inflows to exchanges and continuous outflows from spot ETFs are still creating localized selling pressure in the market. Data shows that in the past week, approximately 18,000 BTC were net inflows into exchanges, indicating more BTC being moved to exchanges for selling. At the same time, the net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs were around 16,000 BTC during the same period. The combined data forms a potential selling pressure of around 34,000 BTC. Glassnode data also shows that the daily trading volume of spot BTC ETFs has dropped to below $20 billion, whereas it once exceeded $50 billion by the end of 2025, reflecting a cooling down of speculative demand from traditional financial channels. However, market sentiment has recently improved due to expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement. BTC quickly rebounded to around $77,800 after falling below $75,000. Derivative data indicates that this round of increase was primarily driven by short covering. The total open interest (OI) of BTC dropped from around 268,000 BTC to 250,000 BTC and then slightly rebounded, and the funding rate also cooled down simultaneously, indicating a decrease in leverage long overcrowding. Analysts believe that for BTC to further push towards $80,000, there needs to be a synchronous increase in spot demand and open interest.

(1) The Middle East conflict has caused fuel and fertilizer costs to soar, creating new challenges for American farmers after Trump imposed additional tariffs last year to curb agricultural exports. To cope with rising costs, farmers continue to increase their demand for loans. According to a Chicago Federal Reserve survey, agricultural loan demand increased year-on-year for the 10th consecutive quarter in the first quarter, while the loan repayment rate index declined for the 10th consecutive quarter.(2) Farmers are cutting expenses: reducing planting, switching to crops that require less fertilizer, or using less fertilizer to control costs, but this increases the risk of lower yields. Banks have noted that clients are spending more cautiously, with reduced new land purchases and equipment sales. Some banks saw an increase in overdue agricultural loans in the first quarter, with loans over 90 days past due rising and additional provisions set aside for this (such as $1.2 million to $1.8 million).(3) The Trump tariffs have already dealt a heavy blow to agriculture, with nationwide farm bankruptcies surging by more than 40% year-on-year in 2025. Now, the cost increases brought about by the Iran war may make matters even worse. Although government loans and subsidies offer banks some protection, lenders are closely monitoring their clients. Experts point out that soaring diesel prices will push up costs at every stage from planting and harvesting to transportation, and small farmers are especially sensitive to rising costs.

According to Golden Ten Data on May 26, after the public holiday break, the U.S. financial markets resumed trading as investors became more optimistic about a possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran, causing U.S. Treasury yields to fall across the board. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.05%, the ten-year yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.49%, and the thirty-year yield dropped by 5 basis points to 5.02%. Previously, Trump said that negotiations with Iran on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz were "progressing smoothly." Abbas Keshvani, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore, said: "Given that market hopes for a deal were dashed before, caution will remain. But progress in the negotiations could lead to further declines in energy prices and inflation expectations, thereby lowering yields."