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Odaily reported that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X stating that the current structure of U.S. inflation has gradually become clear. Although the March CPI data recorded the largest month-on-month increase since 2022, the core CPI remained basically unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressure has not yet spread comprehensively. This trend needs to be continuously monitored in the subsequent PCE data and in the coming months. As long as this structure persists, it means that inflation has not yet formed a systemic embedding in the U.S. economy and is more of a transitory phenomenon, possibly related to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is prolonged, inflation could gradually develop into a systemic risk and begin to impact economic growth. At that point, the Federal Reserve might only be able to respond by continuing to raise interest rates.

According to Golden Ten Data on April 12, CITIC Securities stated that from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most crucial result of the war for the US, and also Trump's biggest "achievement" for appeasing domestic audiences. The current round of conflict has already had a significant negative impact on the midterm elections, and it is necessary to exit early. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities, and no US president over the past decades has been able to resolve the issue, severely affecting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the political propaganda value of Iran "abandoning its nuclear program," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on the election. As a result, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on topics such as control over the Strait of Hormuz. From the perspective of Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important bargaining chips—possibly even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to nuclear weapons, which are extremely costly and difficult to control, blockade of the strait and attacks on infrastructure require only low-cost drones to have a huge impact on the US and the global economy, forming Iran's leverage against the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of massive infrastructure destruction also suggests that the probability of an extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing.

According to Odaily, a 27-year-old German hacker, Noah Christopher, was arrested in Bangkok, Thailand, and faces up to 74 cybercrime arrest warrants in Europe. Investigations show that between 2021 and 2025, he allegedly developed and operated ransomware platforms and a “Cybercrime as a Service” (CaaS) system, including providing distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack tools such as Fluxstress and Neldowner, assisting global clients in launching cyberattacks and collecting payments. The associated ransom payments involved cryptocurrency and other digital assets, constituting transnational cybercrime activities. His visa has now been revoked, and he is being detained while awaiting extradition to Germany. (BangkokPost)