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Caixin Futures: Crude oil and fuel oil fluctuate, soda ash and caustic soda remain weak, methanol shows strengthCrude Oil: Reports indicate that the US and Iran are reportedly close to reaching a framework agreement to end the conflict, considering a two-week extension of the ceasefire. There has been a “major breakthrough” in nuclear negotiations, while the US port "blockade order" against Iran has taken effect to exert pressure. Multiple parties are still pushing both sides to resume negotiations. Domestic crude oil was weak and volatile during the day, following the trend. Although domestic energy and chemical products showed short-term strength, the upward space is expected to be limited in the short term due to cost constraints.Fuel Oil: High-level oscillation. During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, and oil-producing countries cut production, while the domestic dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil is high. Among them, imports of Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil account for 20% of domestic imports. The first round of US-Iran negotiations produced no result, and the US implemented a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports. Geopolitical sentiment fluctuates greatly, so short-term outlook remains high and volatile.Glass: Oscillating at high levels. Today, apart from a small number of domestic enterprises easing prices, most companies mainly maintained stability, and downstream purchasing remained based on rigid demand. This week, the country’s float glass daily output is 144,900 tons, unchanged from April 9. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide is 76.52 million heavy boxes, a week-on-week increase of 1.183 million heavy boxes (+1.57%), and a year-on-year increase of +17.58%.Soda Ash: Slightly weak. This week, the domestic soda ash market was flat and stable with small price fluctuations, and a few enterprises made narrow adjustments. Production for the week was 778,600 tons, an increase of 39,400 tons (+5.34%) compared to the previous period, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 82.21%. As of Thursday, upstream soda ash inventory stood at 1.8794 million tons, down 6,800 tons from Monday. Social inventory is above 3.5 million tons, with a slight decrease overall. Spot-futures basis offers: Hebei warehouse-delivered 5-10 to 20, Shahe 5+15 to 20, Inner Mongolia factory-delivered 5-270 to 320. Overall, medium-term supply is loose and the trend is considered weakly oscillating.Caustic Soda: Slightly weak. Today, some companies in Shandong saw poor sales of low-concentration caustic soda in small batches, leading to price reductions to destock. In addition, main downstream procurement of 32-degree caustic soda dropped by 5 yuan, and most companies continued to see declining transactions. Weekly data shows the average caustic soda capacity utilization rate at 85.1%, down 0.8% from last week. Stocks at fixed caustic soda sample companies with capacity of 200,000 tons and above stand at 559,200 tons (wet tons), up 3.34% week-on-week.Methanol: Slightly weak and fluctuating. Today, spot price in Taicang is 3,380 (+65), Inner Mongolia north line is 2,672.5 (+35). The domestic methanol market generally operated on the stronger side, futures surged intraday then consolidated at high levels, and the focus of port spot prices is ready to follow higher. The basis continued a strong overall pace. This week, port inventories decreased by 71,900 tons, production enterprise inventories 367,700 tons, down 24,300 tons from the previous period. Sample enterprise pending orders at 229,600 tons, down 46,300 tons from the previous period. The Iran situation has seen no significant progress while Middle East overseas supply continues to tighten and destocking expectations provide some price support, so the market is expected to remain strong and volatile in the short term.