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12:09
BCA chief discusses the AI frenzy's peak: the current situation is a profit bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble, and AI demand indicators will guide the market process
BlockBeats reports that on May 30, BCA Research Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin analyzed that the current AI bubble is mainly a profit bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble. Unlike many past stock market bubbles characterized by a rapid surge in price-to-earnings ratios (PE), valuations in the current AI sectors—especially semiconductors—are relatively reasonable, but profit expectations are excessively optimistic and unsustainable. Historically, similar situations appeared with real estate developers and banks before the 2008 financial crisis: their apparent PE ratios were not high, but they relied on unsustainable profit surges. Once profits could not be achieved, the bubble burst. Peter pointed out that semiconductor sales have shown parabolic growth, and current AI demand indicators do not yet suggest that the bubble is about to burst, but all bubbles eventually come to an end. Peter emphasized that investors should not overly rely on Wall Street analysts’ profit forecasts, because stock prices often drop sharply before profit expectations begin to be revised downward. In previous cycles, 12-month forward EPS usually started to decline a few months after stock prices peaked; if investors wait for EPS to be revised down before selling, they may suffer significant losses. The current key is to monitor changes in AI demand indicators in advance.
11:44
「Stock God」 Serenity Forecasts AI Hardware Investment Opportunity: Foxconn CPO Switch Ships in Q3, Xinxi is Responsible for its Advanced Optical Business
BlockBeats News, May 30th - The "Stock God" Serenity posted an article interpreting the latest news from Foxconn's shareholders meeting and strongly recommended its subsidiary ChipTech Holdings. According to the shareholders meeting, the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) switch product has been confirmed to start shipping in Q3, with a target of 10,000 units shipped in 2026, striving to be the global leader, and expecting explosive growth next year. Serenity specifically mentioned: Foxconn's subsidiary responsible for advanced optical business is ChipTech Holdings Limited, and the shipping of these orders in index-level volumes has not yet been fully reflected in the financial report, but is likely to be evident in the second half of the year. This is positioning ahead of the next super cycle, representing the next big opportunity in AI hardware. BlockBeats Note: Serenity is a highly influential senior trader on the Reddit forum WallStreetBets (WSB), with a cumulative investment return rate of over 3800% this year. The core research results are consistently publicly available for free, with a research framework focusing on key supporting elements in the NVIDIA AI chip industry chain. By deeply analyzing the indispensable "screw" type components in the chip manufacturing and packaging process, accurately identifying the key bottlenecks in the supply chain (Chokepoint), and based on this, exploring upstream targets with scarcity and bargaining power. SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors) is the stock mentioned most by Serenity, with 190 calls before. Since the first public call on March 16, 2026, it has skyrocketed by 1860%.
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