Oil prices surpass $101, U.S. Treasury yield curve flattens amid bear market

⑴ The US Treasury market showed a bearish flattening trend overnight. Oil prices continued to rise, breaking through $101.70 per barrel, up more than $3.50 from the previous trading day. This came after The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE secretly launched an attack on Iran, and Trump stated on Monday that the ceasefire agreement with Iran was on "life support." ⑵ Trading volume of 10-year US Treasury futures was moderate, reaching 325,000 contracts as of 18:43 (UTC+8). German government bonds fell, and the yield spread between 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds remained basically flat at 134.7 basis points at the close of European markets. Japanese government bonds were under pressure across the board, with the 10-year yield rising 2.5 basis points to 2.545%, the highest since July 1997. The 30-year yield rose 4 basis points to just above 3.80%, the highest since January. ⑶ UK government bonds fell by about one percentage point, with the 10-year yield rising 9.5 basis points and the yield spread with German Bunds widening by 6 basis points, as Prime Minister Starmer faced resignation pressure. The stock market was under pressure: the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.3%, the Eurozone Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 0.6%. The US Dollar Index rebounded to 98.31, the highest since last Wednesday, while the pound sterling led declines among major currencies to 1.3521. Gold retreated to $4,690.28 per ounce.