Analysis: High oil prices may continue to suppress stocks and crypto assets, as surging energy costs impact global markets

BlockBeats reports that on May 19, oil price shocks are becoming a core risk factor for global markets in 2026. Analysis indicates that the World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices and a 16% increase in overall commodity prices by 2026. High oil prices are exerting dual pressure on both the stock and crypto markets by driving up inflation and interest rate expectations.

For every 1% drop in crude oil supply caused by geopolitical events, international oil prices may rise by an average of 11.5%. According to Morgan Stanley's April model, if extreme transportation bottlenecks occur, international oil prices could rise to $150 to $180 per barrel.

Regarding the crypto market, the report points out that during the energy-driven cross-asset sell-off in March 2026, Bitcoin once fell to the mid-$60,000 range, but later stabilized near $70,000; during this period, about 600,000 BTC were traded. Analysts believe that high oil prices have pushed up US Treasury yields and strengthened the US dollar, causing funds to temporarily exit risk assets and the crypto market.

The report also notes that if energy supplies stabilize in the second half of 2026 and oil prices fall back to the $80 to $90 range, global liquidity might flow back into tech stocks and the DeFi market. However, if Middle Eastern transportation routes deteriorate further, global markets may enter a "quasi-recession" environment and risk assets could face greater selling pressure.