Countdown to Nvidia earnings! Options market bets on a massive $355 billion single-day market cap swing

Golden Ten Data May 20｜After the US stock market closes on Wednesday, "AI chip leader" Nvidia will release its financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Options holdings show that traders expect Nvidia’s market value to fluctuate by $355 billion after the latest earnings release. This indicates that while the market remains bullish on the AI giant, it is also eager to protect existing gains. The options market suggests that the day after Nvidia announces its financial results (Thursday), its share price could swing by about 6.5%. This translates to a market value fluctuation of approximately $350 billion for Nvidia, a figure that exceeds the market capitalization of about 90% of individual stocks in the S&P 500 index. According to leading US options analytics provider Option Research & Technology Services (ORATS), the implied volatility ahead of Nvidia's earnings is higher than the 5.6% level before its February earnings, but still below the historical average of 7.6%. This suggests that while the market has long worried whether large-scale AI capital expenditure can be sustained, investors’ attitudes towards Nvidia’s earnings performance are becoming increasingly stable. Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS, said: "I think investors have become somewhat complacent about artificial intelligence/capital expenditure."