May 13 Financial Morning Brief: Probability of Fed Rate Hike Rises This Year, Gold Prices Under Pressure, Iran Warns of Raising Uranium Enrichment to 90%, Oil Prices Surge Nearly 4%

Huitong Network, May 13—— During the early Asian session on May 13 (GMT+8), spot gold was trading near $4,718.40/oz. On Tuesday, gold prices came under pressure as concerns over inflation and a possible rise in global interest rates intensified. The likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year increased to 34.7%.

On Wednesday (May 13, GMT+8) during the early Asian session, spot gold was trading close to $4,718.40/oz. Gold was pressured on Tuesday as market worries over inflation and potential higher global rates increased, pushing the probability of a Fed rate hike this year to 34.7%. US crude traded near $102/barrel, rising nearly 4% on Tuesday, amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Iran stated that if attacked again, uranium enrichment levels could be raised to 90%.

Key Points to Watch Today

Stock Markets

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both closed lower on Tuesday, down 0.16% and 0.71% respectively, retreating from historical highs, while the Dow edged up by 0.11%. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected, and fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks combined with rising Iranian tensions led investors to take profits as earnings season comes to a close.

Weakness in tech stocks weighed on the Nasdaq, while healthcare stocks lifted the Dow. Inflation data, impacted by the Iranian conflict, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, has almost extinguished hopes for Fed rate cuts this year, increasing the odds of a hike. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in December is 30.5%.

Individually, Zebra Technologies jumped 11.4% after raising its annual sales growth forecast. Humana rose 7.7% after its target price was raised by 36%. GameStop fell 3.5% after eBay rejected an acquisition offer. Hims & Hers Health tanked 14.1% as sales fell short of expectations and the company posted an unexpected loss. Venture Global surged 14.2% after raising its core profit forecast.

Gold Market

Gold fell under pressure on Tuesday, with spot gold dropping by 0.41% to $4,715.07/oz, mainly due to dashed hopes for a peace deal with Iran, which pushed up oil prices and heightened concerns over inflation and potential rises in global interest rates.



TD Securities strategists noted that rising oil prices increase the risk that central banks such as the Fed may have to raise interest rates to fight stagflation, thereby pressuring gold.

US CPI rose for the second consecutive month in April, with the year-on-year increase reaching the largest in nearly three years, reinforcing market expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates suppress non-yielding assets. Additionally, Indian banks resumed gold imports after a month-long pause. The market is also focused on Wednesday's US PPI data and a meeting between the leaders of the two major economies. Spot silver fell 1.1% to $85.12, while platinum and palladium dropped 1.5% and 2%, respectively.

Oil Market

Oil prices rose for a third straight session on Tuesday. Brent crude climbed 3.01% to $107.41/barrel, while WTI jumped 3.87% to $102.05/barrel, mainly due to wide disagreements between the US and Iran on ending the Middle East conflict. Ceasefire negotiations are now "on the brink", as Iran emphasizes its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.



The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that the strait is expected to be effectively closed until late May. Losses in Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies exceed prior forecasts. Even if navigation resumes, oil output and trade patterns are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026 or early 2027. Prolonged supply disruptions are forcing the world to draw down inventories. The EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by about 2.6 million barrels per day this year, much higher than the previous forecast of 300,000 barrels per day.

Forex Market

The dollar rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the US Dollar Index up 0.4% at 98.36, primarily driven by an annual CPI increase of 3.8% in April, the largest since May 2023, slightly above expectations. Doubts over the stability of the Iran ceasefire agreement also strengthened the greenback’s role as a safe-haven asset. Markets have almost completely priced out the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year, with the probability of at least a 25 basis points hike by December rising to 36%.



Trump-nominated Fed Chair candidate Waller was confirmed by the Senate as a board member, with a vote on his chairmanship appointment possibly occurring as early as Wednesday.

In fx, the euro fell 0.42% to $1.1732; the dollar rose 0.33% against the yen to 157.66, after the yen saw a sudden jump in early Tuesday trading, sparking speculation of "rate check" inquiries. US Treasury Secretary Besant said both the US and Japan view excessive forex volatility as harmful, which was interpreted as support for potential Japanese intervention. The pound fell 0.62% to $1.3523, hitting a new low since April 30 during the session, as calls for UK Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation grew, though he insisted on staying in office. The failed Iran peace deal sent oil prices higher, adding to market worries over inflation and the interest rate outlook.

International News

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by June is 97.1%, with the chance of a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut at 2.9%. The chance of rates remaining unchanged by July is 96%, with at least a 25 basis points cut at 4%. By December, the probability of an unchanged rate is 62.8%, a rate cut of at least 25 basis points is 2.6%, and a rate hike of 25 basis points is 34.7% (previous day: 26.3%).



Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that, as a littoral country of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is currently holding consultations on matters related to the strait in accordance with international law and is working on drafting regulatory rules. Araghchi pointed out that the US’s arrogant actions, threatening and provocative speech, and lack of sincerity and credibility are the biggest obstacles to permanently ending hostilities and reaching any potential agreement.



On the 12th local time, US President Trump said there was no rush to resolve the conflict with Iran and expressed his confidence in stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The US Secretary of Defense stated that despite recent tensions and exchanges of fire, the Iran ceasefire agreement remains valid. Iran, on its part, said that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz are prerequisites for any negotiations with the US. Some Iranian officials claimed that if Iran is attacked again, the country could raise uranium enrichment to 90%. (CCTV)



Iran’s economy minister said that after the US blockaded southern Iranian ports, causing cargo delays, Tehran plans to shift some import routes to northern ports and land borders. Ali Madanizadeh told national TV: “Given the slowdown in imports at our southern border and ports, shifting transport routes to northern ports and land borders is now on the agenda.” He added: “A national-level task force has been formed for overall planning, and provincial task forces have also been set up at the border provinces. All issues regarding import/export and transit of goods will be reviewed and resolved by these provincial task forces.”



Iraq and Pakistan have each signed agreements with Iran to transport oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region. Under the agreement, Iraq ensured the safe passage of two very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 10, each carrying about 2 million barrels of oil. According to a separate bilateral agreement between Pakistan and Iran, two LNG tankers carrying Qatari gas are headed to Pakistan. Sources said neither Iraq nor Pakistan made direct payments to Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for transit services. (CCTV News)



A US federal appeals court has temporarily suspended a decision that deemed Trump’s global tariffs illegal. The Trump administration asked to continue collecting related tariffs while legal disputes play out, and judges are considering this request. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals issued a brief order on Tuesday, known as an "administrative stay", and set an expedited schedule for both sides to submit briefs on the government’s request to keep tariffs in place during the appeal. The small businesses and Democratic state officials who brought the lawsuit must respond within a week. The “administrative stay” means that importers must continue paying the 10% tariffs imposed by Trump under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.



On May 12 local time, the US Senate voted to confirm Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair, with the relevant voting procedures still ongoing. On January 30, Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to serve as Fed Chair, succeeding incumbent Jerome Powell. (CCTV News)



According to UK media on the 12th, Home Office Minister Jess Phillips and Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones both announced their resignations. In her letter released by Sky News, Phillips said she "did not see the changes expected of me or the country" and therefore could not continue. Davies-Jones posted her resignation on social media, calling for Prime Minister Starmer to "put the national interest first" and provide a timetable for resignation. On the 12th, three UK government officials resigned. Earlier, Housing, Communities and Local Government Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh also resigned, urging Starmer to "set an orderly transition timetable." Starmer is under enormous pressure to resign. Several media outlets report that multiple cabinet members have called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable. (Xinhua News Agency)



The Alaska State Senate almost unanimously advanced a bill that formally recognizes gold and silver as legal tender. Proponents believe the bill will help protect financial freedom and enable local precious metals dealers to compete more fairly with tax-free online competitors. The so-called "Sound Money Act" passed the state senate on May 11 by a vote of 19 to 1, and has been submitted to Governor Mike Dunleavy for final review. It previously cleared the state house unanimously by 40 votes. Under the bill, gold and silver coins and bars with official markings will be legally recognized as money to the greatest extent permitted by federal law. Crucially, the bill states that physical precious metals transactions will not be subject to local sales or use taxes. Notably, the bill does not mandate that any person or business must accept payment in precious metals. The overall framework is designed to formally grant gold and silver legal status as financial instruments while keeping all such transactions voluntary.



The UK Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections, and Labour leader and Prime Minister Starmer has faced a crisis with repeated calls for his resignation. On the 12th, several government ministers resigned in protest, but several cabinet ministers have publicly supported Starmer to stay. UK media report that more than 80 Labour MPs in the House of Commons have called for Starmer’s resignation. Additionally, more than 100 Labour MPs have signed a statement opposing a leadership change at this time. The statement noted that local election defeats show the urgent need to regain voter trust, that the party must unite internally, and that now is not the time for a leadership contest. (Xinhua News Agency)

Domestic News

In the past, when talking about "Made in China" or "Chinese brands", people thought mainly of cars, home appliances, or clothing. Today, however, micro-dramas, films, games, and trendy toys—original Chinese cultural products—are igniting a global craze for Chinese culture. In the first quarter of this year, China’s service exports reached 704.52 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year; of these, personal culture and entertainment services grew fastest, soaring by 25.6%. What kind of epochal opportunities and development codes are behind this rise in "soft power"? According to international consulting firms, by 2029, the global overseas short drama market will surpass 120 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 53.9%, and Chinese companies are expected to occupy a 76% share. AI shrinks the time to write scripts, produce multi-language versions, and edit massive content from months to weeks, greatly reducing costs. Overseas revenue from Chinese games has exceeded 100 billion RMB for six years running; in 2026, China's self-developed games are expected to generate overseas revenue of $6.331 billion, up 31.76% year-on-year. In recent years, Chinese trend toys have accelerated their global expansion, becoming a "social currency" among young people worldwide, creating massive followings. The origin of this cultural frenzy is China. In 2025, a Chinese trend toy company’s overseas income reached 16.27 billion yuan, up 291.9% year-on-year, with overseas income accounting for 43.8% of total revenue. Experts say the global enthusiasm for Chinese culture represents an inevitable step for Chinese brands—moving from product exports to cultural confidence. (CCTV Finance)