Everbright Futures 0513 Gold Review: Persistent Inflation Dampens Rate Cut Expectations, Gold Faces Resistance Above and Support Below

　　Overnight, the COMEX gold market experienced intensified volatility, with short-term trading showing a "V" shaped reversal after an initial drop, reflecting fierce market battles between bulls and bears.

　　On the macro front, the US April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.7% and the highest since May 2023; core CPI increased 2.8% year-over-year, also exceeding the expected 2.7% and hitting the highest level since September 2025. The overshoot in inflation data signals that price pressures remain persistent. The US-Iran conflict is transmitting influence across the broader price system through energy prices, airfares, and transportation costs, further reinforcing sticky inflation. As a result, market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have been further postponed, making the rate cut window increasingly slim. In theoretical terms, a high interest rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby limiting upward momentum for gold prices.

　　On the geopolitical front, US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have stalled severely. Iran has made it clear that ending hostilities and lifting blockades are preconditions for negotiations with the US; meanwhile, Trump has indicated he is not in a hurry to resolve the conflict. Although the US Secretary of Defense claims the ceasefire agreement is still valid, Trump has restarted military actions against Iran without needing Congressional authorization, and the situation remains highly uncertain. In addition, personnel changes at the Fed are closely watched by the market. The Senate has confirmed Waller as a Fed governor, and the earliest vote to confirm the Fed chairman could be completed as soon as Wednesday. On the eve of the new chairman's inaugural official speech, the market is particularly focused on his stance amid a renewed rise in inflation; if the tone is more hawkish, it may have a negative impact on gold prices.

　　In summary, based on last night’s performance in the precious metals market, gold continues to display a “supported on the bottom, capped on the top” pattern. The market may continue to trade sideways, waiting for bearish factors to be fully priced in. Strategically, maintain the approach of buying gold on dips, but in the short term, remain alert to dual disturbances from policy and geopolitics; position sizes should be controlled and wait for clearer directional signals.

　　Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Author: Yao Tao

　　Professional Qualification: F3082336

　　Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0018553

Editor in charge: Zhu Hennan